autonomous driving AUTONOMOUS DRIVING – REVOLUTION IN MOBILITY AND VEHICLE DEVELOPMENT According to management consultancy Strategy Engineers, the automation-related system costs for highly automated vehicles, expected on the road by 2021, are forecast to soar five-fold from EUR 518 to EUR 2,8851. Responsible for this effect is the rapidly growing complexity of vehicles and their development. The starting point for the automobile’s 2 0 F O C U S continuous trend toward automation is today’s Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) technology. While such systems are designed to assist and protect the driver, automation technology aims at replacing the driver. Along the defined stages toward automated driving, the share of driving decisions that the vehicle is expected to make independently will rise. With the aid of artifi- cial intelligence, input information from on-board sensor data and direct car2x communication and, indirectly, via the cloud will merge to an overall concept, the so-called environmental model. This image of reality can then be used for virtual lane planning, for example. Such decision-making logic also requires artificial intelligence to identify and interpret situations and reach decisions in the form of driving commands – all of which takes place at a digital level. Fundamental to such digitalization is the reinvention of automotive development. Development cycles shorten and become asynchronous between hardware and software systems. The conventional technique of entire vehicle validation can no longer be completed at start of production – even less so if the system relies on continuous machine learning. This can only be solved by an update capability. Mastering such challenges requires a redefinition of architecture and function levels – similar to the concept of a smartphone, which uses separate layers for hardware, base software and applications. Being already experienced in these fields, digital competitors are capable of encroaching on the established OEMs’ market shares. OEMs currently still have control over the integration of the complete vehicle and, consequently, the HMI (Human Machine Interface). However, this needs securing, and it is crucial to build new digital capacities – whether by acquisition, cooperation or targeted internal competence building. Once this is achieved, it will unlock the potential for countless new revenue streams – by utilizing the automation time and by innovative mobility services. In what form customers will access the latter is decided today. < A significant rise in system costs for highly automated driving technologies is predicted for 2021. Forecast development of system costs 2016 – 2021 in EUR 2016 2021 Strategy Engineers is a strategy and management consultancy specialized in technology companies, with a clear focus on the automotive sector and closely related industries. Being part of the AVL network, Strategy Engineers concentrates on strategic product development – also in the field of “autonomous driving” – in order to maintain sustained growth and a longterm competitive advantage for its customers. Complete publications are available at www.strategyengineers.com. 1) Source: Strategy Engineers; in relation to enabler technologies for highly automated vehicles along the value added chain Sensors Basic software Functional software* HMI & displays Complete vehicle integration 120 32 68 27 23 580 200 300 125 +383% +525% +341% +696% 215 +443%
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